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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence is handed the award. However, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking surprise.

However the current race is fundamentally different. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime strugglers improving in unison. During an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a wild and entertaining year, he's up against five other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still